Railway Stakes 09

Over to the West and one of the great Mile races of the Australian turf!
A couple of the true greats have won this event, namely Better Loosen Up & Northerly who both went on to do almost unprecedented things in Australian racing thereafter. Another notable is Old Comrade who actually went on to knock over Northerly in an Australian Cup in 2002, the year after he saluted in this event.

From a punting perspective it is very helpful to look at past winners of this event, not for what they went on to do thereafter, moreso for what they had done just prior. A good historical anlayis of these winners has been of enormous benefit in finding the next victor in recent years. The following can almost be listed as prerequisites to winning the event;

1. Stick with the Western Australian gallopers. Only 3 Eastern States gallopers have won since 1985 and I'm pretty sure that only 1 (Zaparri) had not started in Western Australia. It is fair to say that the race hasn't always had Eastern States representation but nevertheless that is a revealing statistic.

2. 21 of those winners since 1985 finished 1st,2nd or 3rd at their prior start and possibly none had finished further than 3L back if they were indeed unplaced. Stick with an in form galloper who raced in Perth last start!

3. No winner has carried more than 55.5 kg to win the race since 1985 and only 3 have carried 55kg or more. One of them was an odds on favourite (El Presidente) who carried only .5kg over the limit, and another was the out and out champion in Better Loosen Up. 2004 winner Modem carried 55kg and was only 3kg over the limit. It is hard to see a horse carrying more than 55kg win the event this year considering this stat.
Average winning weight since 1995 is 52.8kg and only slightly higher since 1985.

4. The Barrier draw in recent years seems to have added significance. Only 4 of the last 16 winners have come from Barrier 10 or worse. One of those was Northerly who sat 4 wide most of the race from memory, pretty much unheard of in a G1 event and definitely a prelude to his Champion status earned in the next 12 months. From 1988-1992 all 5 winners came from barrier 11 or wider so the trend has definitely reversed since then for some reason.

5. 20 of the last 50 winners and 10 of the last 21 have been 4y0's. The remaining 11 of those 21 have been 5yo (3), 6yo's (5) and 7yo's. 2 of the last 3 winners have been 5yo's though so perhaps a trend is devloping there?

6. It is not necessary to have won at 1600m or more to win the event. 4 of the last 9 winners were yet to do so including Northerly. That tends to suggest that it isn't an overly tough mile or maybe that the pace can often be moderate.

7. It is best to have an ability to race on the pace or in the first half of the field. 9 winners since 1985 have come from further back than that but drawing wide and going back in recent years does seem to be a further recipe for disaster. Only 1 winner since 1994 has been able to win the event given that scenario.
There looks to be only a moderate pace in the race this year so it seems almost certain that the winner will come from those runners on or just off the pace (certainly no further back than 10th early) who have preferably drawn a barrier.

8. Stick with those horses that have a prolific strike rate. The vast majority who win this race have at least a 25% overall winning strike rate.

9. 8 of the last 14 winners had a starting price of between $6 and $9. Average winning SP since 1995 is $7.67 and since 1985 slightly less than $8 too so there is amazing consistency obtained just by following the betting right up to start time.

10. Only 1 winner since 1985 has won the race off more than a 16 day break. It was Better Loosen Up? There is no horse near the class BLU this year so it would be very wise to ignore anything in the race coming off a bigger break than that.


Summing up from a Historical perspective;

A. Be on a local horse
B. Placed at its last start
C. Weighted with 55kg and preferably less than 53kg.
D. Drawn lower than 10
E. An ability to race on or somewhere near the pace (considering likely moderate pace this year)
F. Be a fairly prolific winner (25% win rate or more)
G. Likely to start at $9 or less
H. Had it's last start within 17 days of this race.


Rule G procludes an absolute standout selection but the market seems wrong to me in the evaluation of ELLIOTTO. He passes all other criteria and really should be around an $8 quote or even less.
Another that goes close is GRAND NIRVANA. But for the barrier he would be the perfect selection. Not sure what the tactics will be from barrier 12 but he must go forward in my opinion if he is to win the race. The moderate pace (on paper) would make the task of getting a 'soft' on pace position almost certain.

These 2 appear to be the most likely historical candidates but is the Interstate invasion the strongest ever year and is the apparently cooler than average Perth Weather this season going to work more to their advantage than is normally the case?



MEGATIC- Very good horse who has 5 wins and 4 placings from 11 starts this track. He is not a bad weight carrier either winning 6 of his 16 starts with 56.5kg or more. Has to defy history here in regards to carrying the 57kg and winning here. And he concedes a lot of weight to horses' who beat him or were close to him in the Lee Steere Stakes last start and his barrier is no help to him. Don't like his chances though an even run will augur well for WFA at his next assignment.

SNIPERS BULLET- Very difficult to suggest he is any hope at all especially drawn off the track with this weight. Hasn't won since June 2007 and somehow he has to carry 1.5kg more than last year in what looks like a more difficult renewal. What is the handicapper thinking? Please!

ALL AMERICAN- Still trying to figure out how on earth he managed to win a G1 mile race last start, but he did so in spectacular fashion. I seriously doubt he can rise to that level again though with 3kg more weight on his back and he will need luck in running from the inside barrier off a possible moderate pace.

GOLD SALUTE- Quality galloper who is a model of consistency. He is a problem at the barrier though which has cost him dearly at his last 3 visits to the racetrack one of which he stayed in the stalls and isn't recorded in his form, declared a non runner. Oliver on here though and he is 2/2 on him and could be the key to getting him out of the stalls quickly. There is a suspicion too this horse prefers a bit of give in the track coupled with more than 14 days between runs but it's not conclusive.
His chances probably depend on whether he can jump with them or not. If he does he might find himself in the ideal spot on a moderate speed. Overall though I think there are just too many question marks about him to be taking $3 or just over. More of a $5-$6 chance in reality.

LARGO LAD- Disappointing at G3 level first up this time in and his 2nd up record isn't encouraging. 21 day break into this and virtually no winning precedent for that historically, or in his formlines. Awkward barrier and duck egg next to his name are other negatives from a historical perspective. Probably needs a fast pace and/or and inspired, daring ride to have any chance.

ORTENSIA- Super mare who should arguably have a G1 and G2 win beside her name. She's had no luck at her past 2 starts. Should have knocked over one of the best 1200m WFA fields this year in one of them and only the barrier and an ordinary ride beat her in the Stradbroke last June. Twice in her career thus far she has overcome wide runs in transit in breathtaking wins and it is possible that she will need to do that again here. Her chances are rather dependant on a positive (and not necessarily pretty) ride I feel, though and interview I saw with Tony Noonan suggests they will go back and ride for luck. That could be very counter productive though with the possibility of a moderately run race. If that does transpire her only hope might be to circle the field at the 800m mark. She has the necessary quality to take this race by 'the scruff of the neck' but it requires a gamble I'm not sure connections will take. Don't doubt her at the distance as she has a half sister who has won at 2150m. The best of the Eastern states horses' in my opinion and quite like the fact that she arrived here 11 days ago rather than this week.

TARZI- Interesting runner with a few positives here, not the least his jockey Paul Harvey. Has a preference for Ascot (over Belmont) and for less than 15 days between runs which he has here. Very well weighted and well drawn and apparently prepared specifically for this race which hasn't been the case in past years. The one big negative is his record in fields of more than 10 runners. 1 win from 29 attempts whereas he is 10/29 with 10 runners or less. Win rate also not great historically. Drops 7kg from a WFA placing last start though so he has to be taken seriously especially with Harvey navigating a passage. Can place but can't quite see him winning.

COLOUR CORRECT- Ultra consistent horse but barrier 17 and unknown stepping up to 1600m. Meets Elliotto 1kg worse after looking to have his measure last week and failing to go on with it so he looks a bit outclassed in this with other factors not falling his way.

ELLIOTTO- Has a lot going for him here as mentioned in the Historical perspective. Add to that the fact that he has won his last 2 races within 7 days of backing up and 2 siblings that have won and beyond this distance and we have one serious chance here who is definitely way over the odds. Can't really find a negative for him with the excetpion of how he lines up against the Eastern staters class wise. He has a winners weight though whereas the majority of those do not.

FAMOUS ROMAN- Represents massive value in this race at the weights on what he has done during the Melbourne Spring, and at his previous start. He meets Gold Salute 2kg better for a 1.6L deficit last time they met and 2.5kg better for a 2.5L defeat from their previous meeting. Those 2 runs put him right on a par with GS, basically a 3.5kg inferior horse and there is 3.5kg between them today. GS is $3 and he is $30 in some markets which is ridiculous. He actually meets All American 4kg better for their last meeting when he beat that horse home, and he meets Megatic 5kg better for a 1.2L deficit at WFA last time.
He should derive great benefit from having the one run back in his home state and he has 'got the jump' on the Eastern staters in that regard. Worth remembering he ran one of, if not the fastest ever 1500m races ever run in this country in the RJ Peters this year beating Gilded Venom and followed that up with an unlucky effort in this race last year off a wide barrier. Great chance from an ideal barrier this time around.

GRAND NIRVANA- Similar formlines to Elliotto and a more mature horse than the one who contested this race last year. He performed admirably there after enduring a wide run in transit.
Ideal lead up run placing in the RJ Peters last start and he meets the victor Elliotto 2kg better there for less than a length. In fact on the meetings between those 2 horses lately it appears he is a 1L better horse than Elliotto at level weights.
The problem he has to overcome here is Barrier 12. He really has to go forward from there in a race that appears to be devoid of speed ,otherwise risk a wide run in transit. 2 wins from 12 at Ascot as opposed to 3/3 at Belmont is of some concern as are murmurs that he hasn't been on his best behaviour during recent races.
Weighted to win though and if right tactics are employed he is a definite chance.

KEYTOMONEY- Shocking barrier and an unknown at 1600m, much like Colour Correct. Some hope on his WFA effort last time beating home the likes of Megatic & Famous Roman but just difficult to imagine him winning from out there, almost certainly having to overcome a wide run.

LORDS RANSOM- Looks to have the job ahead here first up in a G1 at this distance, not having won for over a year, and with an ordinary first up record. 3 positives though;

1. Back in his home state with I think his original trainer.
2. 7/7 in Perth at distances of 1600m+
3. First time first up at a distance beyond 1500m.

That gives some hope to his backers and worth a speccie at the $40+ available but realistically the quality of this race is probably beyond him.

OROYA GOLD- Runs the odd good race but he is a non winner and the class of this race definitely looks beyond him.

SPIRITED ONE- Good quality mare who looks good from a historical viewpoint for this. She has never one an open age event outside of her own gender though and her 3rd up form isn't as good as her 1st and 2nd up form. She also looks a little shy class wise of the top WA contenders in this and gets back in her races thus needs luck. Well drawn but not sure that gives here any more of an advantage given her racing style.

LAMBTON CASTLE- Hard to see him making an impression in this class off a 27 day break.

COCONUT GROVE- Probably doesn't get a start and if he does the class looks a bit beyond him despite the fact he is regally bred.

Summing up;

I've struggled to come up with a no.1 selection here torn between 2 WFA gallopers at good odds and quite possibly the best mare in the country who looks to have little in her favour.
In the end I'm going back to the historical references and going with ELLIOTTO. He should get all the faovurs and it shouldn't matter too much how the race is run from his pespective.


1. ELLIOTTO (overs)
2. ORTENSIA (odds about right)
3. FAMOUS ROMAN (overs)
4. GRAND NIRVANA (odds about right)

Wouldn't be suprised if any of these salute but most happy with 1 & 3 from a financial perspective.

FANTENE'S RIVALS TO BEGG FOR MERCY

Exciting short course specialist Fantene returns from a spell tomorrow at Warwick Farm in race 4 at 3:45pm.

She is perfectly placed here with Graeme Begg electing for Brenton Avdulla's two kilo claim - and the speedy mare has drawn a perfect marble in gate two.

Judging by her scintillating barrier trial win at Warwick Farm on 6 November, I'd say she is fully primed for a first up tilt here. She ran a blistering 47.40 for the 815 metres and did it under double wraps. She didn't go flat out from the off but was given about 100 metres to get her balance before Avdulla hit the go button.

There is a a bit of speed in tomorrow's race as you would expect in any 1000 metre assignment, but most of the field is better suited at 1100 and beyond. It won't do horses like Welkom Gold and Sacred Orders any good to be matching motors with Fantene early in their prep aration if connections are looking for a fruitful summer campaign.

If Fantene can be ridden steadily again for the first 100 metres to hold the inside lead, Avdulla can again apply the blow torch before the turn and it will be a procession,

I'd be happy to take plenty of $2.80.

OAKS DAY QUADDIE

The Cummings filly just wins the Oaks.

Gai has taken Turf Express to Melbourne for a kill after a great effort in super fast time last start.

Burdekin Blues is very classy and will simply blitz these.

Berringama has plenty of ability and will be winning.

2 -1 - 2 - 10.

Bet up.

THE BURDEN OF THE TRACK RECORD

A little while ago I posted this "lift" from the www.justracing.com.au website....

"A chance read by moi of a very intersting article at the somtimes - well, mostly - controversial but highly entertaining justracing.com.au site a few weeks back has me defintely ready to get some cash early at The Heath tomorrow.

Last start Mark Kavanagh trained Sandown track record breaker - Definitely Ready - is odds on tomorrow in the first race and must simply be a huge risk, given the imperical evidence laid bare in the Justracing article which can be viewed here....http://justracing.com.au/index.php?news_page=2&artid=3331&catid=52

For the time or concentration challenged who just want the salient bit, I quote thus....

"So maybe punters now armed with the information that 74.19% of track record breakers go over (get beaten - Ed) at their very next start will not be so quick to think such and such a horse is a “put in take out” job. Extrapolating the figures out further, an astounding 91.04% get rolled within two starts of breaking a track record".

Well, history tells that Tan Tat Brave - my selection in that race - was scratched and that Definitely Ready defied the 74% stat to win at around the $1.80 quote.

But...

On Saturday Rangirangdoo didn't - at $2.80 when up in class in a G1 race.

And today Definitely Ready couldn't overcome the 91% stat when sent out at $1.75.....

Well worth remembering folks.

THE MELBOURNE CUP 2009

Bart wins another Cup.......Yawn
photo by abc.net.au

I thought I'd better set up a post about the Cup before we start putting comments up all over the place. I've bumped it up to the top of the blog now that Derby Day has come and gone.

All thoughts welcome - and they will undoubtedly be Viewed and enjoyed by a host of latestform disciples over an Alcopop or two.

(I know...that was Shocking!!!!)

I actually the Cup is a pretty simple assignment this year.

Viewed and Alcopop are deserved favourites because they all come off highly impressive last start wins. The rest of the local stayers are mostly legless and lack the key ingredient - acceleration. All three faves have this attribute. The imports have been staggeringly unimpressive.

But I am wary of C'est La Guerre if rain comes.

I like Alcopop because he is a last start impressive winner over 2400. I'm more worried about how the trainer and jockey are coping with their 15 seconds of fame. But I suppose if Vic Rail, Cyril Small and Joe Janiak could cope with the big time.....

And I have some mail that suggests that the secret to Alcopop's sudden emergence as a stayer of note is that he has an abnormally large heart - a la Phar Lap. I'm trying to get that confirmed because it certainly won't go against him.

Phil's comments are also telling, thus....

"I'm not worried about the opposition he has been beating because he has done it so easily - though I'm not liking the irregular preparation of 24 days between runs into a Melbourne Cup. Perhaps his light weight will assist greatly though and he did win off a 23 day break from the 1600m of the Balaklava Cup to the 2040 of the Moonee Valley JRA Cup.

European blood everywhere in his breeding. Himself Sired by Jeune and his Dam by Blevic (Scenic) out of an At Talaq mare. In that small sample there are 2 Melbourne Cup winners, an AJC Derby winner and Scenic the Sire of Blevic is also the Sire of Viewed, last years Melbourne Cup winner of course.

Melbourne Cup written all over him from that perspective and the European influence might suggest that he can cope with his runs spaced".

Hmmmmmm........plenty of food for thought there from Phil - as usual.

And the weight advantage he has over Viewed is very significant.

Flemington Derby Day 09

And everyones' invited to post their thoughts and tips here on what is the best quality day of racing on the Australian Calendar. I'll hopefully get time tomorrow to preview at least a couple of the races and add some historical data for the majority of them. I'll be looking a bit 'outside the square' (as is usual) in regards to my tips so I'm not expecting to pick the card but would be happy with a couple of at least $7+ winners to increase the bank for Melbourne Cup day.


It will pay to be aware that the inside section of the track hasn't been used very much of late and therefore could play to leaders and horses drawn well on that section of the track, if not all day,quite likely in the first few races.


Race 1 Carbine Club- I'm skipping this weak event. History tells us very little. Will most likely have a little interest bet on the High Chapparal colt SEGURO but THE COMEDIAN should lead here and be hard to beat at a relatively short price. I understand he is 2/2 with Blinkers On (thanks Matt) and had Seguro 2+ lengths behind him winning 2 starts back. That alone suggests the class isn't a problem seeing that Seguro got within 1.9L of Kidnapped last time.

Race 2 Lexus Stakes;

Historically- This is a good race for those that settle in the first half of the field and with the rail section still new it cold be a similar story this year. Also a good event for 5 & 6yo's with the majority of beaten favourites over the years being 4yo's.

Analysis- I have really found this a tough race to sort out and it's been a long time since I've picked the winner of it to be honest.
The obvious one for me is Hume who I backed last start. I thought he should have just about won that race (Coongy) and probably would have had he not got so far back. Should be better suited at Flemington and Katsidis should be determined to get him to the outside this time as he seemed to resent going back to the rail last time. Problem is he is going to get a long way back again most likely from the barrier and I'm not sure a long sweeping run down the outside is going to do the trick. He is also a slight distance doubt to my mind and the stable are on record saying that he is a year off being at his best.
At the value I'm going to plump for the Cummings trained NAVAL ESCORT. Has the 1 barrier and hopefully some use is made of it unlike last start where he settled back last in the run and overraced. Being a Montjeu I wonder if he handled the 9 days between runs there.
I'm a bit nonplussed that this horse won with Blinkers on 2 starts back at Geelong then had them removed last time and he failed. Stable was on record 2 weeks ago saying that the Montjeu breed find 4-5 lengths with them on, yet they don't go back on here. Touch of arrogance in regard to getting him into the Cup field?? 28 days since interesting seeing he has won off a 27 day break over 1900m earlier in his career and he also ran a super race in the AJC Derby off a 22 day break. This bloke is a half brother to NZ Derby winner Hail and AJC Derby placegetter Braeloch so he has the bloodlines to do something ofo note. This could be it. Might he get the miracle rails run from midfield or back early in the straight. Blake Shinn On and Clare Lindop riding the more favoured stablemate.

Race 3 Wakeful Stakes;

Historically- Not a good race for those conceding weight or at the top of the weights, at least not in recent times. Interesting that 16 of the last 22 winners have drawn 8 or wider. This is a smaller field than usual.

Analysis- Haven't done a lot but do think either RUN FOR NAARA or FAINT PERFUME will win the event. Not the latter had it's first run on a dry track last start and ran 3rd in a G1 for Cummings. That said RFN is betters sutied on dry too and was ultra impressive this distance last time with a big impost. Not a race that really inspires me though.

Race 4- Coolmore Stud Stakes;

Historically- Only 3 editions of this race to date and the only conclusion we can draw is that an on pace type has won all 3. This is a bigger field thiw time around though and thus likely to be more speed.

Analysis-Like a few others on this Blog I'm keen on SHELLSCRAPE at silly double figure odds. I really like the fact that his record reads 4 from 4 with 22 days or more between runs and that is happening here again. 1 from 6 with 0-14 days between runs. Hugely impressive off a freshen last time in Sydney bettering 1.10 for 1200m on a Slow track. Has Wanted beaten drawing a weights comparison through Rarefied and he met that horse off a 14 day break which wasn't his go. Thrashed Funtantes last time and that horse conceded weight to Stryker the start before and was beaten by a far less margin. Stryker had good form around Denman so that should stack up here. Races on or near the pace which could be the place to be.
A host of genuine chances here but a few have had a lot of racing and others having to come back a fair way in distance. 2 of those look hard to beat though- Demerit & Irish Lights.
Also a watch on KING PULSE at odds. He might not be out of this on his victory over La Bella Encosta (after running a very quick time winning on debut). That filly went well subsequently against the impressive Avenue who has been running scorching times. Drawn widest here which could be advantageous.


Race 5- Mackinnon Stakes;

Historically- Is certainly a race for those runners settling in the first half of the field. Last year was a prime example with Theseo and Barbaricus the only 2 leaders dominating proceedings throughout. Runners coming from the Cox Plate and Caulfield Cup not surprisingly win the majority of these. 6 of the last 6 winners out of the Cox Plate to win this haven't finished better than 3rd in that event, an interesting stat. Only 6 of the past 24 (25%) winners can truly be called Victorian and of the last 7 winners 5 have hailed from Sydney.

Analysis- Not a lot of speed in the race this year with only Sir Slick the likely leader, Vigor also to go forward and possibly Rangirangdoo to sit just off them. Sir Slick probably isn't good enough to win which means that the VIGOR could be the one to run down if he does in fact start.
He has an awful record with less than 15 days between runs but there seems to have been recognition of that factor by Danny O'Brien the past week or so. I suspect there has been a change in training routine judging by comments made about his trackwork being good enough to win this event. There was no such confidence before the Caulfield Cup in an interview I heard prior so I'm just reading between the lines. The drop in distance here might also act as a freshen for the horse and realistically 2400m is probably as far as he wants at G1 level with 2000m being his optimum. Inconclusive but likely looking at this bloodlines.

If Vigor doesn't perform up to scratch (of even if he does) I'm wary of the Melbourne Cup co-favourite VIEWED. A monster of a run by him here in the Turnbull then super impressive in the Caulfield Cup. Reminds me a little of Let's Elope and Rogan Josh who both came out of the same race for Bart and demolished the opposition in this when it seemed they were looking to go up in distance and not back. When Bart gets them in this sort of form they seem to be just about unbeatable. He also had Sirmione win this event a couple of years back after he went shocking in the Caulfield Cup which suggests his horses' seem to thrive here at the bigger track 2000m+.

Zipping and Scenic Shot have the right form out of the Cox Plate for this. The former is a great 7 day backup horse but having said that he might have had a real gutbuster last week after looking beaten on turning before rallying to take 3rd. Also a big concerned that they might ecide to go back on him which could prove his downfall.

Rangirangdoo a major hope here with the relatively fresh Sprinters legs. Should get the 2000m being by Pentire and Blinkers On last time just might make him into the complete package. Should get the right run near the pace and hard to hold out. Just not impressed at the price tackling middle distance first time against established G1 2000m horses.

Race 6- Victoria Derby;

Historically- Stay right away from those coming out of the Geelong Derby Trial. Only 2 in last 20 years have saluted here. Last 2o winners have all placed at their previous start and the vast majority of them have come through the Norman Robinson & Aami Vase.

Analysis- Shamoline Warrior is out of the race now which makes the job easier for popular Latestform elect MONACO CONSUL. He showed blistering acceleration and a degree of stamina in the Champion Stakes, a good test for this as it was on a bog track. Sire of the moment in High Chaparral and as stated the stable have a big opinion of him and say he is better on firmer ground. Pity the price is going to almost halve but hopefully a winner is a winner!

Race 7- Myer Classic;

Historically- Struggling to find history on the event but Forensics won it last year and Lotteria the year before (from memory).

Analysis- It does seem that there will be a lot of pressure in the race with Jolie's Shinju, Typhoon Tracy, Gold Water, Hot Danish & Subtle Cove to go forward. That may well set the race up for something off the pace or a swooper.
I'm staying away from the favourites here with TT a slight risk at the 1600m particularly off a fast pace and Hot Danish seemingly not at her best around the left handed turns.
I like 2 at odds;

NEROLI- Missed the start last time and that was the end of the section for her. She was left chasing a long way from home and did dnough to suggest that the extra 200m here on the bigger track would suit. Blinkers on could be critical and hopefully McEvoy doesn't fall asleep in the barriers again as he has done on a few popular elects lately. Overall Neroli has 'the wood' on Hot Danish. Pace here should suit here perfectly.

LADY LYNETTE- A mare in form unbeaten this distance and both wins at it have come in her past 2 starts. Very noticeable too that with 0-14 days between runs she has 8 wins from 10. With more days than that she is only 1 win from 9! 5th up here and last preparation she bolted in by 5.5L albeit in Tassie. She is a massive chance here and might well be ignored in the market @ $20+.

Race 8-Seppelt Salinger Stakes;

Historically- The trend here is definitely to go with 5 & 6 year old gallopers who have won 9 of the past 10 runnings. Only 5 winners have come from worse than midfield settling so best to stick with those with an ability to race on pace. 9 of the last 16 winners have won from a barrier outside 8. A filly or mare have won 3 of the last 10 events. 9 of the last 10 winners have carried 55kg or less.

Analysis- I found it hard to tip away from First Command here but history says he might struggle being a 4yo and carrying the 56.5kg.
It seems as though NEWS ALERT did a massive favour for at least a couple of us last start and he lines up very well here from a historical perspective being an on pace 5yo, widely drawn and in form.
Since being with Con Karatkatsanis he has become a winner and unlucky on a couple of occasions. 8 starts for 4 wins, 2 seconds and a 3rd. 2 wins and 8 placings from 12 for previous trainer. The only failure for Con was in the Ramornie at Grafton where he was galloped on and came off a 7 day break which was unsuitable anyway looking at him from a constitution perspective. I say that because I distinctly remember his trainer attributing a distant 3rd during the Qld Winter on a Heavy track down to a poor recovery 14 days earlier after winning on a similarly wet surface.
Good double figure odds for him here and Gauci on is a positive with his knowledge of the straight 1200m.

I might save on the Newcastle mare ABSOLUTELYFABULOUS. A bit of an enigma but she does appear well weighted as Cal has pointed out to me. She had a setback recently but that might well work in her favour as she is fresh for this which might well be to her advantage. She stuggles to maintain winning form in her campaigns so the extended break between runs could be a bonus and she likes racing at Flemington albeit no form down the straight.

Race 9- Aami Insurance Stakes;

Historically- Little data to peruse. All Silent won impressively last year gaining an inside run late from memory. Seem to remember Valedictum winning after a cosy inside run a few years back.

Analysis- I've seen a few people commenting that this is too difficult to pick but I don't mind the race. Pretty keen on LARGO LAD.
I don't usually like horses' resuming at 1400m but this horse has managed it before and in fact has won his last 2 first up starts pretty impressively and one was here down the straight. He is a big long strider who is suited at the bigger tracks and there appears to be enough speed for him here to launch a winning claim at the death, hopefully taking the shortcut up the inside rail.
Only 3kg over the mimimum here which is a winning weight considering his fine efforts in the George Ryder (WFA) and Doncaster in the Autumn. David Hayes has always stated he is the stable horse of the future and this horse should be ready to deliver on that promise now. Double figures get on!

Keen also to have a Speccie on the NZer OCCIDENTALIS. He seems a far better horse on Good to Dead tracks and particularly with more than 14 days between runs. Overall he is 6 wins from 11 as opposed to 0 from 7 with less than 14. Only 1L away at G3 level last time (14 days!) and thrashed Nom Du Jeu and Ginga Dude in a listed race the start before off a favoured 21 day break. $26 is enormous value about him.


This is always a very tough day to keep your nose in front and it might pay to observe the early trends in regard to where the winners are coming from (on pace or back) and whether or not it is possible to win coming wide in the straight. Hopefully the track will play fairly to all horses and it does seem that since the new track has been laid that has become more likely.

My best;

SHELLSCRAPE, MONACO CONSUL & LARGO LAD but quite keen to back all those mentioned at double figure odds.

FLEMINGTON DERBY DAY PREVIEW - 31 OCTOBER

All roads lead to Flemington on Saturday for Cup week
photo by vrc.net.au

The best day of racing on the Strayan racing calendar unfolds on Saturday - marking of course the opening of the biggest week of racing on these shores.

Sporadic rain and storms are still unfortunately forecast for tonight and Saturday - which is a real pity as apparently the track is in pristine order at present. A very warm day is expected to unfold which could mean high humidity as well.
　
FLEMINGTON

As at 5pm on Friday 30 October
Track – Dead 4
Rail - True
Penetrometer - 4.82
Weather forecast – Cloudy and 30 degrees for Saturday with possible intermittent showers and maybe late thunderstorms.

Synopsis

With the rail back to the true position and a fresh pad of turf available next to the rail, like Caulfield Guineas Day this meeting traditionally provides on-pacers with all the favours given a firm racing surface. The forecast looks like delivering a Good 3 with very warm temperatures expected, if the forecast rain is not too severe - or maybe a Dead 4 scenario as currently given out.


Race One - The Carbine Club Stakes - 1600 metres (11:10am)

Chomp down your Weet Bix hard and early because it's the usual sparrow fart start today with the Carbine. I really liked the way that the Freedman trained The Comedian won last start from the front at Geelong, running fast time and really extending like a quality type at the business end. He looks like he has been set by Coolmore for this and then the Sandown Guineas to get some quick black type to boost his potential stallion value. I therefore expect that favourite backers will get off on the right foot here. He is perfectly drawn in three and Dunn can control the race from on pace - which is the place to be, especially early doors.

Bawaardi from the Hayes yard has ability and will also likely be in the first three and therefore represents the obvious danger off two good recent runs.

The Snowden pair of Kidnapped and Euphemism have to respected but might get left a bit flat footed at the 300. Kidnapped could end up covering ground from his wide gate if McEvoy is indecisive early in the caper, Euphemism will get a soft cart into the race from the inside gate and must be included in exotic plays.

Verdict

Like King Pulse did a few weeks back, The Comedian can put a smile on our faces by taking his impressive Geelong form straight to town at his current price of $2.70 (IAS - in from $3.00) or better. He has been very firm in the betting so far - so we may get slightly better on race day. But he was very heavily backed on track at Geelong so don't be afraid to follow if they go hard again.

Betting

Kidnapped has been very, very heavily backed today (Friday) and is into equal favouritism at around the $2.90 mark (IAS).

Latestform Market

$2.70 - The Comedian
$4.50 - Bawaardi
$5.00 - Kidnapped
$8.00 - Euphemism
$13.00 - Disco Summit


Race Two - The Lexus Stakes/Dalgety/Hotham Hcp - 2500 metres (11:50pm)

Shocking finally gets his chance to find a winnable race this preparation. Kavanagh has taken him along very slowly - openly telling TVN operatives that he was as big as a bus at his first two starts when well in the market. And punters will stick with him again when the word Alcopop appears next to his name in their form guides. Rodd will put him to sleep back on the fence and look to gain some cheap yards around the circle to have him ready to produce at the Clock Tower. Alcopop and Baughurst form is a bit better than the Geelong Cup form in my book this year. Sermon should get along here to string the field out so the miles in Shocking's legs will come in very handy at the pointy end.

And some bloke called Michael Rodd jumps aboard for the first time this spring.....

Hume also comes off the Baughurst Coongey and in fact he has only put in one stinker this prep - at his previous run on the Randwick slop. He may have to get well back here from a wide gate but he is capable of giving this a shake with clever ride off a stiff pace.

I reckon Sermon is the blowout here. His Cranbourne Cup win two back stacks up - easily accounting for The Sportsman and Zupacool - who have emphatically franked the race subsequently. He was asked to back up six days later which only served to "bury" him in the Baughusrt race. If they let him stride it could be interesting...

To my mind the Geelong Cup was a very disappointing renewal given it's great recent revival as a Melbourne Cup guide. The older horses that come through the race have to back up very quickly of a fast run race - that spells danger to me going down that form line.

Light Vision is the class runner disappointed in the Caulfield Cup and is drawn awfully here and has to carry a big weight that has been well earned. But N dot Hall could win on anything at the moment. He is riding like a blur.

Watch for Dandaad to be ridiculously short on all totes. Naval Escort from barrier one and a fast early pace could produce a rabbit at big odds from the hat that is Bart.

Verdict

Shocking gets his chance here and at the $4.60 (Betchoice) currently on offer he is worth a play from the good gate. Play each way if you want to be cautious early in a long day. Sermon is huge value at $51.00.

Betting

Shocking is now into $4.00 on Betchoice late Friday night.
　
Latestform Market

$3.80 - Shocking
$6.50 - Hume
$7.50 - Sermon
$8.00 - Light Vision
$11.00 - Sterling Prince


Race Three - Wakeful Stakes - 2000 metres (12:35pm)

A man has to eat more than Weet Bix - and this is precisely when I'll be doing that - pass.

More sandwiches please, James. And a strong, tall latte.


Race Four - The Coolmore Stakes - 1200 metres (1:20pm)

This race is a cracker and for me the highlight of the day. Particularly as I desperately want to go around the sponsor's favourite - who I reckon has nil chance coming back from the 1600 of the Thousand Guineas against fillies off a soft early pace to 1200 in open 3yo company off a foolly hektic early pace - in 10 days!!

The good thing about this race is that the best horse will win. Honest Truth is a dead set, bona fide flying machine and he will get them off the bit and chasing early - which won't help Irish Lights.

I reckon Shellscape can sit about five lengths off this hot pace and hopefully get some cover from gate five if they all go down the flat rail as I think they will. Blake Shinn rode him perfectly at Randwick in that he waited until inside the 300 to ask for the supreme effort - and he bolted in. They broke 70 seconds on a slop!

Just check to see that his coat looks OK in the parade. He has had a long preparation and even though he performs optimally fresh - there is a chance that he could have had enough racing. But his last effort tells me that there is something left in the tank - and C dot Waller is the master of the freshen.

Demerit also has to be respected as his Caulfield Guineas Prelude win was sensational and he was kept way from Denman in the Guineas to be freshened and saved for this. He'll be ready to pounce at the 200 and I reckon he will will come way with Shellscrape to fight it out.

Phelan Ready and Headway will be suited by the mad speed and will get home strongly - as they did to quinella this years Golden Slipper. Wanted wasn't suited last start back to 1000 in the Schillaci - but will be highly competitive going on his previous super Manikato effort. But barrier 14 could see him in no man's land early. The query runner.

Verdict

Shellscrape and Demerit both come off highly impressive last start victories and will get a hectic pace here so as to enable them to finish off very strongly. Back both at the fat odds available right now. Shellscrape is available at $12.00 and Demerit is at $7.00 (both with TabSportsbet). Shellscrape gets the nod because he will have the last sit off a good smother. Play multiples aggressively around these two.

Betting

Demerit has been smashed today - into $5.00 (Betchoice) and $4.80 (IAS). Shellscrape into $11.00 and his action might be oncourse.

Latestform Market

$4.80 - Shellscrape
$6.00 - Demerit
$9.00 - Phelan Ready
$10.00 - Wanted
$11.00 - Headway


Race 5 - The Lachlan Kenneth Scobie Mackinnon Stakes - 2000 metres (2:05pm)

In many editions of the race the leading trio dominate. Theseo last year was prime example, successfully backing up off a tough Cox Plate run after stepping up from the mile of the Epsom. He nosed the O'Brien trained Barbaricus, who conversely had come back in distance from an on pace second in the Caulfield Cup.

So the key to the race is definitely the likely pace. Sir Slick with the pole position and three weeks between runs looks the likely aggressor early. Rangirangdo will simply possie in the first three easily from his juicy 3 gate - along with I suspect Drumbeats, who was never a factor from a wide draw last time but in tucked nicely into gate 4 here.

These two horses are clearly the most lightly raced types in the race and I think they can control this affair from the front - making it difficult for backmarkers to come into it - especially those coming back in distance from the Caulfield Cup.

Those older horses that went around at the Valley a week ago might also find it hard to back up if the track was indeed as hard as it was reported to be.

None of which worried our Rangi - who broke the Valley mile track record and with blinkers on for the first time had the race won a long way out. He inevitably has to step up to premium grade at some stage - and Waller might have picked a very opportune time to do it. A win here will set this horse up for a great 2010.

Verdict

It is impossible to knock "our Rangi" and his career record says it all. I suggest that the $3.50 currently on offer is as skinny as I'd want to go - but he was a bit soft in on-track betting last week and he could get out to around the $4.00 mark if support comes for Vigor, Zipping and Viewed, especially as the latter will be short on the tote no doubt.

Betting

Rangirangdoo is very solid and into $3.40 (Betchoice) and $3.30 (IAS) on Friday night.

Latestform Market

$3.80 - Rangirangdoo
$5.00 - Drumbeats
$6.00 - Zipping
$8.00 - Viewed
$10.00 - Vigor


Race 6 - The Victoria Derby - 2500 metres (2:55pm)

After the demolition of the Champion Stakes field on a dodgy track, I am an unabashed fan of Monaco Consul and I think he can extend his brilliance to the 2500 metres of the Derby. His final 200 metres at Randwick was something to behold, particularly as he made a lot of ground up the inside section of the track - where only one or two races later, Triple Honour couldn't go a yard in the Epsom.

And he may not have to go too far back here and can make full use of the premier gate.

Gathering will roll forward but it is hard to envisage stablemate Onemorenomore pressing on like he did in the Norman Robinson. They have taken the cross over nose band off him and I am pretty certain that we won't be seeing him throwing his head around like Peter Garrett at a Midnight Oil reunion - like his last couple of efforts.

After all - his newish trainer John Thompson used to be Bart's foreman. You have to believe in osmosis even if you aren't a conspiracy theorist.

I wonder whether the favourite - Shamoline Warrior - can reproduce his last effort here. He had all the favours last time and really didn't come away from the Patinack pair on the line. I'm not saying he wasn't impressive, but there is no way I would be queueing to take anything around the $3.00 mark currently on offer.

Verdict

I like Monaco Consul as a true staying type - and his boom sire High Chaparral has hopefully given him a strong dose of speed and stamina that can extend to the classic distance on Saturday. I'm banking that he has at his current very firm quote of $5.50 (Betchoice).

Onemorenomore will be ridden cold and will be very hard to beat at a silly price of $12.00 (TabSportsbet).

Betting

Monaco Consul very solid at $5.00 in most place ($4.80 IAS). Onemorenomore now into $9.00 almost everywhere as the flood starts. Favourite out to $3.20 universally.

Latestform Market

$3.40 - Monaco Consul
$4.80 - Onemorenomore
$5.50 - Shamoline Warrior
$8.00 - Gathering
$11.00 - Rockferry


Race 7 - The Myer Classic - 1600 metres (3:40pm)

Well it is well documented that I am a huge fan of Typhoon Tracy but history tells us that she is definitely vulnerable here at a very skinny quote. Horses of the calibre of Lonhro, Weekend Hussler and Denman have had a freshen and come back in distance off G1 wins to win again. But when pushed back up in distance they lall failed badly. To be able to freshen a horse to come back in distance a trainer has to lighten it's workload to make it less dour and be able to ping quicker. This clearly must have an effect on the horses stamina - and therefore its ability to successfully go back up in distance.

I could not back her at the 5/4 they are offering tomorrow - after they bet the generous 7/2 last time.

And I can't back Hot Danish after her last two Melbourne runs - she looks to be racing sour and/or not handling reverse cornering as Phil has suggested.

But every time I "pot" her I get badly embarrased and she cost me the quaddie on this day last year by going around her.

So that leaves Neroli - who has clearly been set for a G1 grand final by Snowden. It's a great race for a mare to have on her breeding CV - and Snowden successfully set Forensics for it last year. Importantly - the shades go on tomorrow to get her to jump better from the gates and get into the first half of the field early. I'm tipping Jolies Shinju (definitely) and (maybe) Glowlamp will try to really force the pace tomorrow to get Tracy to crack. So from barrier three I see McEvoy getting a good smother and all the favours so that Neroli can produce in the straight with her short sharp finishing sprint.

I don't think the other mares are quite up to winning at this level - although Lady Lynette is very honest and Gold Water is capable of placing with the right ride.

Verdict - Neroli with the blinkers going on, from the good gate, is a great each way play at her current quote of $9.00 (IAS). Don't leave Typhoon Tracy out of your quaddie though - just for insurance. She is very, very good, but is vulnerable here.

Betting

Neroli well tried into $8.00 (IAS). Typhoon Tracy pushed to $2.30.

Latestform Market

$3.80 - Neroli
$4.00 - Typhoon Tracy
$6.00 - Hot Danish
$8.00 - Lady Lynette
$11.00 - Gold Water


Race 8 - The Salinger Stakes - 1200 metres (4:25pm)

This race looks like developing into a carbon copy of recent straight 1200 metre events at HQ.
They may well go out to the grandstand rail - and the probably will walk the first 600 in about 36 seconds. This narrows the chances down to First Command (gate 10) and News Alert (gate 12) - as they will get on the bunny and dictate here. Outside of these two I don't see a lot of natural pace. Turffontein is racing honestly and is a genuine G2 type who will always bob up in a race like this - "the new Swick" perhaps...

Verdict

News Alert is great value here and he will likely lead and Gauci will try to stack them up for as long as possible. Great value at the $12.00 currently on offer on Friday night (TABSportsbet).

Betting

News Alert into $10.00 with IAS and the favourite a bit soft at $2.60.

Latestform Market

$4.00 - News Alert
$4.40 - First Command
$8.00 - Turffontein
$9.00 - Eagle Falls
$11.00 - Wasted Emotions

Race 9 - The AAMI Stakes - 1400 metres (5:10pm)


The toughest race of the day and the Quaddie finisher.

I am frankly stuggling with it - and I sense a blow out and therefore may just go fooly wide in the Quaddie. The race usually fancies on-pacers or those with a suck run back on the fence.

QUADDIE

1st Leg - Monaco Consul (4)
2nd Leg - Neroli (4) and Typhoon Tracy (11)
3rd Leg - First Command (2) and News Alert (4)
4th Leg - Field - 16 selections

Total units = 64

Bets of luck to all!

Cox Pate 2009 Part 2

Can't seem to access the original post and want to finish off.

ROCK KINGDOM-

Preparation: This race appears to be an afterthought but no doubt he deserves his place. 5th up last preparation he ran 2nd in the Randwick Guineas then followed it up with an unlucky 2nd in the Rosehill Guineas. 14 day between runs record is only 1 win from 5 (at his 2nd start) and his best has been achieved when backing up 7 days. He is rock hard fit though so it seems as though he can run well again.

Form: Has been outstanding particularly in his last 2 starts. Gritty win in the Epsom and followed that up with an unlucky 4th in the Toorak after covering a lot of extra territory in the run. Note the Blinkers came off 2nd up in the George Main stakes WFA and he went uncharacteristically poorly there. They went back on before the Epsom and he hasn't looked back. 6 wins and 6 placings from 15 starts and only beaten more than 2L on both occasions. One was the Derby where he probably couldn't get the distance and the other in the George Main can be forgiven also. Another ultra consistent performer.

Track: Is an unknown. Encouraging that he did so well first time left handed at Caulfield and he has on pace credentials which should stand him in good stead here.

Distance: Doesn't appear to be a problem and he probably should have won the Rosehill Guineas at his only try when Nash Rawiller inexcusably stopped riding before the winning post.

Barrier- Is of minor concern, out a little bit wide but you'd think the instructions will be to go forward here as Gai is fond of such tactics in the big races (at least) and the horse has raced right on the pace in the past.

Preferred Surface: Doesn't matter to him. Got through the Heavy in the Epsom and his last run on Good was just as impressive.

Historically: He doesn't get too many ticks. 4yo drawn outside barrier 7 are the negatives but he can race forward of midfield which is an asset.

Verdict;

Some query at WFA if the failure in the George Main could be attributed to the weight he carried rather than the Gear Change. He looks to be a little on the small side which could mean he is better carrying lighter weights in the Handicaps.
That and the barrier are really the only slight doubts I can convey as he too looks to have a realistic chance in a very even field.


MANHATTAN RAIN-

Preparation: Hard to believe he is only 3rd up into this and he did win on the only occasion at his 3rd race start. 14 days between runs for 1 win and 1 second the only 2 times he has tried it so 8 starts thus far in his career it is a little surprising.

Form: Has been good without being a great recommendation for this. Doesn't appear that he is the best of our 3yo crop.

Track: Is an unknown for him too but he too handled left handed first time at Caulfield.

Distance: Presents a serious problem as we still aren't sure he runs out a really strong 1600m. The Caulfield Guineas was hardly a stamina test the way it was run and he was a bit disappointing in the Champagne at a mile (albeit Heavy going) when a hot favourite as a 2yo.

Barrier: Is a definite problem and leaves him with no option but to go forward injecting a bit more pace into the race. No point letting him 'find his feet' as it could see him getting caught terribly wide.

Preferred Surface: Appears to be Good to Dead as he has 3 defeats when the tracks have been Slow or Heavy. Should get conditions to suit.

Historically: It is very difficult for 3yo's to be competitive in this race unless they have stamina and the breeding to go with. Bad barrier a big negative and though he races on the pace he will have to work early to get close to the rail.

Verdict;

Seems a bit inexperienced for a race like this and doubt him class and stamina wise. Best hope would be an uncompetitive race where he could dictate but it is much more likely he will have to overcome a lot of pressure up front at different stages if he can in fact get to the lead. Barrier is probably too much to overcome in any case.


SO YOU THINK-

Preparation: Comes into this off a 14 day break in the Caulfield Guineas and he has won off same the only time he has attempted it. That length of time between runs is probably better for this than the 21 days before his last start at the mile. Bart could have got his preparation spot on for this coming back from 1800 back to 1600m and back up to 2000m here.

Form: Is satisfactory coming into this with the last run in the Guineas being a lot better than it appears on paper, probably the run of the race at least potential wise. Too far back in a muddling run race which suited the on pacers, he was back and wide but finished off well.
2 wins from 4 starts doesn't give us too much to peruse.

Track: Is possibly the worst scenario for with his get back racing pattern and I did read somewhere that he didn't handle it too well in trackwork this week.

Distance: Could be an asset for him seeing he has already won at 1800m and had to come back in distance to the mile of the Guineas last start. Had that race been 1800m then he may well have won it looking at the way he finished off. Sire was a high class middle distance horse in Europe so this horse is likely to follow in his footsteps over 2000m+.

Barrier- Is okay for him from a historical perspective.

Preferred Surface: Quite difficult to say with all 4 career starts commendable on Good-Dead surfaces. 1 win on each.

Historically: Not so good at his age and with his racing pattern. Barrier is a plus though.
The fact he has had a run this preparation beyond 1600m could be another positive as the last 3yo to win, Savabeel did so albeit at 2000m (not 1800m as he has). Not too many 3yo's entered for this have had that type of preparation for this. No Sir Tristram line on either side of his breeding has me perturbed as that is the common denominator for his age being successful.

Verdict;

Has a sneaky chance and note the Tongue Tie coming off for the first time in his career.
Bart doesn't often sneak a 3yo into the Cox Plate field and the easier option would have been the Vase tomorrow. That must tell us something about Barts' opinion of him. This really would be a training triumph to rival anything he has ever done though getting this horse to peak at his 5th start after a 5L defeat in a weaker event at his previous start.
Boss rides and that is probably a positive particularly after what I consider to have been a less than satisfactory ride on the filly Samantha Miss last year. He has to utilise the light weight better this time around by putting this horse into the race at the 800m and rounding up the leaders if the horse is going well enough at the time.
Overall I reckon we need $20+ about him to play and that isn't available at present largely because of his trainer I suspect.



Tempo;

Sir Slick has come out of the race and that could be critical to the chances of backmarkers here. With him in the race there seemed to be every chance of a high speed tempo being set but now I'm not so sure. Gai Waterhouse holds the aces with her 2 runners Manhattan Rain & Rock Kingdom. I'd expect both to go forward but can't imagine either runner wanting to ruin it's chances by going too hard at it out in front. All that said trying to guess the pace in any race is fraught with danger so I could be totally wrong about what transpires here. This is what I do know about the plans of respective trainers for their charges' today;

El Segundo- Well I haven't heard anything concrete but his pattern is to get back and he should be from the wide alley.

Zipping- Surprisingly, but to my delight the horse is definitely going to be ridden aggressively today and this is his Grand Final. Lloyd Williams says Steven Arnold won't sleep tonight unless he gets him off the rail to sit outside the lead or one out one back! They are very serious about winning this today.

Vision And Power- The stable doesn't want to participate in the early speed which I think is a mistake.

Nom Du Jeu- Hasn't been settling in his races lately so not sure what to expect from him. His best form is when ridden quiet.

Scenic Shot- Shane Scriven is adamant he wants to ride the horse 'ugly' and states he doesn't want any horse in his outside as he detests it. This means he will go back probably further than midfield rather than risk higher speed horses' cramping him early.

Black Piranha- From what I've read they will be going back on him early too as is his normal pattern.

Road To Rock- Expected to be in the first 4 or 5 but connections might need to rethink that with Sir Slick out, if that is indeed the intention.

Speed Gifted- Lee Freedman has stated in an interview that they won't be participating in the early speed and will be back in the 2nd half. Dominic Beirne (Form analyst) has stated that his best chance would be to go forward and I tend to agree.

Whobegotyou- Should resume his normal pattern of being back a bit further than midfield at best.

Heart Of Dreams- Talk of him sitting 5th or 6th early.

Rock Kingdom- Not totally sure but I would imagine he will go forward as he did when winning the Epsom.

Manhattan Rain: Probably leads for mine but doubt jockey will want to be aggressive about seeing he is a distance doubt.

So You Think- Is likely to get back but possible he will make his run (if he is good enough) at about the 800m putting some pressure into the race at that point.


Some Cox Plates in the recent past have been run a bit uncompetively and it is likely (but not conclusive) this one could be similar. That is a concern for runners placed in the 2nd half of the field early, particularly those drawn in.


Summing Up;

The majority of my investment here is going to be on SPEED GIFTED. This seems to be a very even field and I have a doubt about the standard of our current crop of WFA horses. There doesn't really appear to be a standout so this horse could be ready to fill the void of WFA Champ if he can replicate his runs in recent handicaps. That is a big call admittedly and he is going to have to be close to a 'Champion' to take this out.
The fact he has had the run over a longer trip is a good precedent for this race in recent years and he is a 6 year old which is a positive. Not sure the barrier is as negative as I thought earlier. After all you wouldn't want to see this horse boxed in considering the limited amount of starts he has had. If they go forward his chances probably increase greatly but alas, that doesn't seem to be the case.

Analytically though I'm probably not being too logical. That is why I will be at least saving on the Lloyd Williams trained Zipping. I've always liked this horse and feel that he should have proved himself our best 2000m WFA horse well and truly by now. With Melbourne Cups always on the agenda for him 2000m races have had to take a back seat but that isn't the case today. Going forward too which is very, very significant in light of concerns over the lack of speed and initiative that are likely to ensue. Placed in this race last year is always a good pointer to prospects the following year. He finished an alongside Viewed last time in the Turnbull and had a slightly wider run, both making their runs at the same time. Looking at how well Viewed won the Caulfield Cup last week that is a massive guide to this horses' chances today. Right age, right barrier, right tactics historically. Analytically he is tops in my book.

Also a saver bet on the 3 year old So You Think. I like the fact it appears he has stamina unlike a lot of 3 year olds who start in the event. Bart Cummings must think he is good enough to win this with the AAMI Vase being the easier option.

A host of other chances as indicated in the preview. I have taken a bit of a set against the 4 year olds and might well rue that factor. But neither really represents value so I'm reasonably comfortable with that.

Cox Plate 2009

I love this race which is undoubtedly the Weight For Age Championship of Australasian racing.
It does have it's detractors who say the course is too small and as a result the field is too but rarely does that decide the outcome and the race almost always does decide just who is the best horse in Australasia at that point in time.

My intention this week is to review the chances of each runner which I will probably do in market order as the full field may not be revealed until Wednesday. There are some good recent historical precedents though to the outcome of the race and that is a good place to start the journey to finding this years winner;

1. In 1998 the track surface was changed to what is known as the Strathayr and that seems to have had a decent influence on deciding the winner. Since that time only 2 horses have come from further back than midfield to win the race so the percentages suggest we are better to look for those horses who can race on the pace or futher forward than midfield.

2. Very noticeable too that the barrier draw has a little too much say in the outcome of the race. Of those last 11 runnings no winner has started outside barrier 7 but strangely no winner has won from barrier 1. Barriers 3-7 have supplied the last 8 winners (14 of 24 overall) and barriers 2-7 have produced 10 of the last 11 winners.
Of the last 24 runnings only Sunline (outright leader), Solvit (outright leader), Better Loosen Up (outright Champion and very high speed set to break up field.) Rubiton ( Very short priced favourite) & Bonecrusher (Champion) have managed to win from a double figured barrier.
I'm not sure that there is a horse good enough to come from a wide barrier in this years' event unless it leads or races right on the pace.

3. Older horses have started to dominate the event in recent years. 6 of the last 7 winners have been aged 6 years or older with 3yo colt Savabeel being the only exception. The last 7 beaten favourites have been 3,4 or 5 years of age.

4. The last 3 winners have been unplaced going into the race and only 4 of the last 10 have won a race prior to saluting. There could be a trend developing in regard to trainers' peaking their horse just to win this race but having said that it isn't a conclusive finding just yet.

5. No horse has won the race after more than a 21 day break in the last 24 years. No problems with a 7,14 or even 21 day break coming into the race so better to look for precedents in each horses' form to decide on which is best suited to winning the race.

6. No conclusive best lead up race either. The Caulfield Stakes 14 days prior has the best record overall in that 24 year period with 8 winners (33%) and that has almost been maintained in the last 11 years at least with 3 winners. From what I can ascertain though 16 of the past 24 winners have last raced at a distance of 2000m, roughly the same as the Cox Plate distance itself. That tells us that we have roughly a 66% chance of picking the winner by looking only at those who ran over 2000m at it's prior start.

7. If we are to select a 3yo to win the race (and they don't win often) then make sure it has a Sir Tristram bloodline on either the Sire or Dams' side. Only 2 3yo's have won the race in the past 20+ years and both were by Sir Tristrams' son Zabeel. 2 other notable 3yo's who ran well include Samantha Miss who finished 3rd last year and Viscount who was arguably unlucky not to win in 2001. Both had Sir Tristram breeding on the dams side.


No history of a race can ever conclusively give us to the winner of it's next editon but it can provide us with a good guide to the best chances. Summing up then it is best to look for the following pointers in order of importance;

A. Start from barriers 2-7

B. Have an ability to race no worse than midfield (avoid backmarkers).

C. No more than 21 days between runs

D. Preferably aged 6 or older

When the final field and barrier draw is declared I'll be back to revisit this topic with the most likely winner/s from this historical perspective.




Back to those historical factors now the field and barrier draw have been declared.Really only 4 possibles and only 2 of those considered certain if we look at recent history.

They are;

Vision And Power & Scenic Shot. Both are aged over 5 have drawn well. Both will have to make use of their barriers though and not get too far back. Just looking at SS's recent runs and he does seem to be able to sit a bit closer in the run than Vision And Power can which could be an asset.The 2 borderline selections are Black Piranha and Zipping but both have more of a get back style. They could adapt though. BP is a Stradbroke winner at 1400m so no reason he shouldn't sit closer in a 2000m race. I long for the day when Zipping races handy to the speed again. All bar 1 of his wins have been when no further back than 6th or 7th at the turn. The only exception was his latest win in the Sandown Classic where he was a short priced favourite and had lengths on most of his opposition. That isn't the case here.

Of the 4 I would plump for Vision And Power as the best historical candidate only because I don't like the 21 days between runs for Scenic Shot (little precedent)and V & P has won at Moonee Valley. Interesting to that Scenic Shot has won 6 races of 12 starts from barriers 10 and wider (8/40 otherwise), and a lot of his recent wins have been when drawn out.


Form analysis;

EL SEGUNDO-

Preparation: Has been ideal coming into the race and he gets here with his favoured 21 days between runs. Notable that he won this race 5th up in 2007 with a similar disappointing effort in the Turnbull beforehand. 5th up in 2006 as well when he was unluckily beaten so Colin Little has done his homework well.

Form: Has been down a level on what we have come to expect from him. He ran an absolute boomer first up but really has failed to flatter since which includes a rather disappointing 5th at this track in the Dato Chin Nam Stakes.

Track: Generally loves it here with 4 wins from 9 but that is why I mentioned the Dato Chin Nam effort which was disappointing. And so was his previous effort at this track.

Distance: No problems with the 2040m as evidenced by his 2 efforts in this race.Barrier: Presents a problem as he isn't used to drawing wide and has failed in only 3 efforts with draws outside 9.

Preferred surface: More or less a dry tracker who doesn't want it any worse than a Dead rating from what we can ascertain from his stats.

Historically: He is the right age and previous winners and placegetters of this race have a great record when attempting again.Barrier and field position pose a problem for him though.

Verdict;I don't think his run in the Turnbull Stakes was good enough to suggest that he is back to the level he was at before his injury problems last year. Perhaps things aren't quite right with him physically and that is being reflected in his performances lately. A great effort by Colin Little to get him here for the 3rd time though and he has timed his preparation well.I'm happy to go work around him since he is a bit down on form. His wide barrier makes that decision a little easier to live with.
October 20, 2009 6:19 PM

ZIPPING-

Preparation: Is exactly the same as in the last 2 years coming into this 3rd up (from Dato Chin Nam and Turnbull) and 21 days between runs. Last year was an outstinding run, but not so good in 2007.

Form: Poor first up which is fairly normal for him. 2nd up run was full of merit though in the Turnbull when only .5L behind Caulfield Cup winner Viewed at the finish. Not quite as good a run but conversely not dissimilar. Similar improvement again and he is in this right up to his ears.

Track: He seems as good here as anywhere else statistically but in general you would say being a backmarker it really isn't his best circuit. Didn't stop him from running a good 2nd last year though.

Distance: Has won 3 from 5 at 2000-2040 but his record reads slightly better at 2400-2500m with 3 wins from 4. Had the horse not been given so many preparatory runs for the Melbourne Cup in his career then his record at 2000m would undoubtedly read even better. But are we seeing history repeat yet again?

Barrier: Would seem a bonus seeing that he failed from a wide draw in 2007 but succeeded to be runner up from barrier 5 last year. If he is to drift back in this capacity field though the good barrier is largely negated and he might need luck on his side weaving a passage through the field.

Preferred Surface: Either a Good or Dead rated track would be preferred though he couldn't be described as a wet track 'duffer' either.Historically: Rates well with his experience and from the good alley.Having placed in the race last year is also an excellent precedent. Negative is where he gets to in the run. If Lloyd Williams seriously means to win this with him then he needs to rethink the get back strategy in all likelihood.

Verdict;Has an excellent chance as it appears the race could be run at a faster tempo than in recent years. How much connections want to win is undoubtedly the key. Is Stablemate Efficients' scratching a guide to their thoughts? If so he deserves very serious thought but it is hard to totally leave him out of calculations whatever the scenario. Turnbull runners filled the first 3 placings in last weeks Caulfield Cup so that last run is probably a good enough guide to his chances here.

VISION AND POWER-

Preparation: Is excellent for this with 14 days between runs. That was the case before both his 2 Group 1 wins in the Autumn in the George Ryder and Doncaster. 6th run in this campaign and he can sustain his form long into a preparation.

Form:Seemingly coming good at the right time as he steps up to the middle distances. Nice run in the Yalumba last start which was a marked improvement on his Sydney form in seemingly weaker class. Hard to seen him not improve again on that last effort.


Track: Has a win here from 3 attempts at 1600m. That is a bonus but only 1 win from 18 in the anti-clockwise direction is somewhat alarming (9/32 Clockwise). Different trainer now though and a better horse than in his early days so perhaps the run last start at Caulfield should be utilised as hard evidence.

Distance: Very versatile horse and hard to pick just what is his best trip. That bit older now and 2000m may well be it despite the fact his G1 victories have been at 1500m & 1600m. Excellent run in the Queen Elizabeth during the Autumn where a wide gate and rearward position probably ended his winning chances.

Barrier: Should be a big asset and it gives his jockey the option of taking up a forward position. Had he drawn out he would have had to go back in the field which could have proved costly.

Preferred Surface: Is Heavy but you have to take into account a recent G1 win on a Dead surface in the Ryder Stakes. Here is a great example of where statistics can be very misleading;His record on Good tracks is 3 wins from 28 starts! That really does send alarm bells ringing but a closer look reveals he won 3 of his 5 starts on Good tracks during his last campaign and he ran 2nd in the other 2 races, one of which was at Group 1 level!Track conditions quite obviously are of little consequence to him as he has got older

Historically: As already discussed has everything going for him as long as he takes up a foward of midfield position and doesn't have to rely on too much luck in running from back in the field.Just isn't a negative otherwise and the fact he has been to this track 3 times before is another bonus.

Verdict;

I've just about convinced myself that he is an undeniable chance and wouldn't have thought that before doing the analysis. His Sydney trainer has found the key to him in the past 12 months and it seems he has timed the horses' preparation perfectly for this race. I thought there was a negative in regard to his need for some give in the track but not even that appears to be of concern. There is likelihood of rain so his ability to handle the wet could be advantageous and find others wanting.$15 appears to be fabulous odds in light of the analysis provided.

NOM DU JEU-

Preparation: Seems a bit rushed with this being his 4th run in roughly a month. Set a task in the Yalumba travelling down from Sydney and backing up within a week. 14 days into this is a bit more realistic for him and 4th up last campaign he was unlucky not to win the Caulfield Cup.
He is sired by Montjeu and that breed generally run well fresh so perhaps he would be better placed with 21 days+ between runs as was the case before he won the AJC Derby (27 days between runs).

Form: Is only fair coming into this race but that isn't too much of a negative if he can peak on the day. You'd have to say he was a bit disappointing last start when passed by a few horses after being on pace but that isn't the way he is normally ridden either.

Track: Unknown here and that could be a disadvantage as most of the winners of the race in the past have at least run her once. Tends to get back in his races so the tighter turns are hardly likely to be advantageous to him.

Distance: Is probably 400m shy of his best when taking into account his 2 best performances in the AJC Derby and Caulfield Cup.

Barrier: Ideal from a historical perspective but he needs to make use of it like some others here. His best racing style is rearward in the run as in the AJC Derby and Caulfield Cup successes so unfortunately it is unlikely he will be suited making use of it.

Preferred Surface: Is inconclusive but a wet track brings him more into calculations as he handles it better than most (AJC Derby win on Heavy) and it would make the race more of a stamina test to bring the others back to him.

Historically: Is the wrong age but barrier is a plus and so is his preparation and toughness.

Verdict;

He is a slim chance at odds but only if the track got to a genuine Heavy. Also would have liked to see him come into this with a less rushed preparation and more than 3 weeks between runs.
Can't see him figuring but would be nice to see him run an even race with the Melbourne Cup in mind.

SCENIC SHOT-

Preparation: Comes into this 4th up but his record is better 3rd up (4/8 as opposed to 2/7).
Don't like the fact he comes into this with 21 days between runs as all his G1 wins have been
off 0-14 days. Looking at how well he went in the Turnbull perhaps that should have been the Cox Plate run, 3rd start in with 14 days between runs so the first 2 starts this time could have been planned better.

Form: Almost a career best last time when he sat wide and refused to quit. A lesser horse certainly would have thrown in the towel. His was the best run in the Turnbull Stakes and the form out of it so far has been fabulous ,supplying the Caulfield Cup Trifecta last week. Any improvement here and he just about wins this but that is the burning question. Can he off a less than ideal break between runs?

Track: Not started here which is a disadvantage. On the plus side he has won on 5 different tracks and in 2 different directions so at least he appears adaptable in that regard.

Distance: Only 1 win from 6 between 2000-2100m which is a little misleading because he has won more races at below and beyond this trip and he does have a G1 win to his credit at 2020m.
No problem for him really and seeing he is perhaps a little bit 'soft' fitness wise it should be ideal for a horse with good stamina later on in his preparations.

Barrier: Is good for him historically but recent wins and good runs show he is a better horse with galloping room so his jockey needs to be aware of that factor and not get hemmed in between horses'.

Preferred Surface: Really doesn't matter to him as he acts on wet or dry with equal aplomb. Very versatile in this regard.

Historically: Comes up pretty well as already discussed. Really not a negative especially if jockey Scriven can place him midfield or better.

Verdict;

Has a lot of positives but I'm concerned about the 21 days between runs and where he will get positioned in the run. Tight track a query but if he can get to the outside at about the 800m mark and track into the race he could take a lot of stopping.

BLACK PIRANHA-

Preparation: Has been pretty good for this and although his 4th up record reads 0/6 he comes into this with his favoured 14 days between runs.

Form: Is his usually honest self atm, possibly the most consistent horse in the Country right now. 15 starts since he finished 2L from the winner in any race contested and he has won 4 of them.

Track: Another unknown and only his 2nd run anti clockwise coming into this. That factor didn't seem to bother him at Caulfield but it would have been nice to see him with a run under his belt at this cicuit all the same.

Distance: Is some query in this class. His only try over 2000m was in the Port Macquarie Cup and he undoubtedly should have won that day. He gives the impression that he won''t have any problem with it and the finishing burst in the Toorak was a decent indicator that that he will cope.

Barrier: Gets back in his races but the good alley gives the jockey more options than he otherwise would have had from a wide barrier. Not sure you can call it an advantage if he drops back in the field and from a historical perspective his good draw needs to be utilised.

Preferred Surface: Like a few in this he doesn't appear to have won. Puts in whatever conditions are underfoot.

Historically: As discussed a lot of positives. He is predominately a backmarker though which presents a problem to him. Possible that there will be above avearge speed in the race this time though which could work in his favour.

Verdict;

Almost certain to run well. Possibly like to see him with another run under his belt at 2000m and would also prefer his winning strike rate to be a lot higher than it is despite the consistency.
An absolute must for Quinella, Trifecta and First 4 Players and won't be at all surprised if he does win. Is overs at his current $15 quote seeing that he has similar formlines from the Sydney Autumn as the favourite here.


SIR SLICK-

Preparation- 5th run this time in and the more runs under the belt the better for the old warhorse. 1 win from 31 starts 1st to 4th up in his campagins tell us a lot about him but maybe he could be better served coming into this with a couple more runs behind him. Only 1 win from 30 during Springtime is a definite negative also. Summer is by far his best time of year, 12 wins from 38 starts.

Form: Is disappointing coming into this and is in weaker races in New Zealand.

Track: Comfortably beaten in 2 runs here last Spring and being an on pacer we are entitled to see better than that from him.

Distance: Is probably his best with 5 wins from 15 (33%).

Barrier: Means he will have to work a bit to get across early. He needs to lead here to be any chance of winning it would seem.

Preferred Surface: Is Good. Definitely a 'top of the ground' type of horse.

Historically: He probably rates quite well with the exception of the wide barrier. He can overcome that though if he is on song and a few winners that were leaders have done so.

Verdict;

Has never really been up to winning at G1 level in Australia. His Spring form was abysmal here last year doing little in 10 starts the best of them a placing at Bairnsdale!
With a bit of luck here he can set a fast pace which will give every horse a fair chance of winning.
Very hard to see him saluting though his opposition need to afford him some respect by not letting him get too far in front.

ROAD TO ROCK-

Preparation: Comes into this 4th up and is 0/3 in the past when attempting same but is in career best form right now so hard to see anything conclusive in that. 21 days between runs doesn't seem to present a problem to him and he did win the George Main Stkaes recently off such a break.

Form: Is exemplary atm and he seems to be on a career high at present. Just unlucky that he hit a Heavy track in the Epsom as it seems that factor cost him victory.

Track: 1 win and 1 second here from his 2 tries albeit at shorter distances but that is a big postive for him and his on pace ability is suited to this circuit.

Distance: Has some excellent form at 2000m including 3 goes at WFA last campaign and he was beaten less than 2L on 2 of those occasions. Hasn't won below 1500m in his career and he has performed well up to 2400m indicating that this trip might be his best into the future.

Barrier: Should be ideal for him and gives him the opportunity to 'resume normal service' and get back to his on pace style now he has stepped up in distance a bit. Needs to utilise it though and at least race handy.

Preferred Surface: Is certainly Good to Dead from what we can ascertain.

Historically: Not bad with the exception of age but he is showing greater maturity now which should stand him in good stead. The 1 barrier has been a bit of a dud ovet the last 2+ decades but not sure if too many have had the ability to use it tactically like he can.

Verdict;

Hard to see any real negative for him unless the track does deteriorate badly. If you look at his wet track stats it is clear that he doesn't enjoy it when the track gets to the worst side of Slow to Heavy. That being the case his effort in the Epsom was superb and proves he has the ability to win this. First win at WFA 2 starts back tells us he has stepped up a notch this preparation. Another with undeniable claims and $31 Fixed is just unbelievable shopping.


SPEED GIFTED:

Preparation: A difficult horse to assess with a lot of his racing completed overseas. 21 days between runs here would seem ideal given his siring by Montjeu and coming back from the 2400m of the Metrop in Sydney, but no success all the same from 2 attempts. Only one 4th up run to date and it was a shocker albeit off a 47 day break in the UK. Can't read anything into that.

Form: Is outstanding since coming to this Country and being Gelded before arrival. His first win here was the most impressive effort by an import since Media Puzzle won the Geelong Cup years ago and he did it at a distance well shy of his best. A similarly outstanding effort in the Metrop last start on a seemingly unsuitable bog track. He had to sustain a long run that day from the turn on but it seems he was able to quicken when needed on possibly 2 occasions to my eye.

Track: Is of some concern because 3 of his 4 victories here have been at the bigger circuits at Randwick and Flemington. He has the ability to race handy though as evidenced by his first up win and the Metrop effort. Some encouragement that he can adapt direction wise which may show his versatility.

Distance: Shouldn't pose a problem for him particularly with the freshen up. Appears very versatile in this regard.

Barrier: Is the biggest concern for him here. Poor from a historical perspective and a quandry for Jockey, connections and Punters alike. Go forward or back or just let the horse decide for itself? I don't favour the latter option as it probably means getting caught in no mans land which isn't good from 2 perspectives- winning this race and a 'gutbuster' possible in view of the Melbourne Cup. No idea what I would do in view of winning this race so it saps the confidence from a Punting perspective.

Preferred Surface: Yet another who is comfortable on any surface.

Historically: Is the right age and given recent history if he can race handy of midfield or even right on the pace it would be another positive.

Verdict;

It's been a long time since I've been this keen on a staying type horse, particularly an import. To my eye he can do things I've not seen before and has blinding acceleration to go with is stamina, a rare commodity to have both in the one package.
But on the other hand he is yet to do it in this class and with this weight on his back so perhaps I am getting too easily carried away.
I will be having a fairly major outlay on him but have to admit I am thinking with my heart moreso than my (analytical) head. Here's hoping my eyes don't deceive me!

Not sure I would advise taking less than double figures about him especially as there is a lot of other value in the race.


WHOBEGOTYOU-

Preparation: Has been just about spot on. 6th run in is the only query as he did disappint in the Derby last Spring at the same stage. 7 days into the Underwood was probably not ideal, 21 days to the Yalumba certainly wasn't, but 14 days into the Cox Plate definitely is. This has been the goal since Cox Plate day last year so no stone has been left unturned by trainer Kavanagh.

Form: Is ultra consistent at the highest level and what we have come to expect from him in his short career. 2 wins and 3 seconds this time in mirrors his unbelievably consistent overall record. 7 wins and 8 placings from 18 career starts and only once beaten more than 3L speaks volmes for him.

Track: Record here is approaching "without peer" status with 4 wins from 4 starts and no horse has got within a length of him in any of those wins. He has come from further back tham midfield on all 4 occasions which is very commendable seeing that MV almost always favours the on pacers.

Distance: Doesn't appear to present a problem to him at all.

Barrier: Doesn't either with 3 wins from 7 barriers 10-12. That said drawing where he is has been suicidal in this race in recent years and if caught wide here throughout it could mean the difference between winning and losing. Speed is likely up front though which should help his cause.

Preferred Surface: Is certainly Good but he also gets through Dead going not quite as well.
Appears that he is 2-3 lengths inferior on Slow-Heavy ground and a track that presents like that would probably ruin his chances.

Historically: He doesn't line up too well at all. Last 4yo to win was Sunline in 1999 and last male 4yo to win was the kiwi The Phantom Chance in 1993. That's 15 years since a 4yo male has won, a quite surprising stat. Barrier a problem as mentioned and field position also doesn't help his cause.

Verdict;

Impossible to knock him in regards to consistency and record at the track. He is a very good horse but his early price and disparity between him and others in the market indicated that he was something much more special than that and I don't buy it. Where is the proof that he is that much better than all of the horses he met in the Autumn let alone Heart Of Dreams this campaign?
To my mind he has always been hyped a little too much. He annihilated his 3yo rivals last Spring in the Caulfield Guineas and Aami Vase but he beat mostly ordinary horses' in the latter and 1200-1400m types in the former. Neither race had Heart Of Dreams in opposition which is a pertinent point.

I don't deny he is very hard to beat but history says no (recent at least) and I certainly don't advise taking less than $4 about him. Hard to see him missing a top 5 finish so has to go into all multiples.


HEART OF DREAMS-

Preparation: In unchartered territory here 5th up this campaign. A tiny query there and though Mick Price is a top trainer I wouldn't say he is renowned as the best in the business at getting horses to peak further into their campaigns.
That is probably being a bit critical because the planning for this horse looks pretty good overall going into that last run off a 21 day break and coming into this off a 14 day break. 4 of his 5 wins have been with that time between runs so that is certainly a positive. The only other win was 1st up. 0/4 with 15-21 days between starts tells us that he was unlikely to win last time but it was perfect preparation for this.

Form: Is very similar to his fellow 4yo Whobe, though he is 6 career starts shy of that horse. In his 12 career starts to date he has only once been beaten more than 2.5L so he too can be rated in the super consistent category. Excellent effort last start when jockey tactics appeared to cost him victory, ending up further back in the run than the eventual winner. That shouldn't happen this time so no question he can reverse the result.

Track: Is an unknown for him and that is always a query when coming into this race. Hard to see it posing a problem in reality though as he has been versatile to date winning at 4 different tracks that vary quite a bit.

Distance: Was a question mark before that last effort in the Caulfield Stakes but he came through with flying colours and that was off a far from ideal 21 day break.

Barrier- Is ideal for him as he likes to Box seat or sit just behind the leaders. He won the Cadbury Australian Guineas from that sort of field positon in the Autumn. From Barriers 1-6 he has 3 wins from 5 but outside that only 2 wins from 7. He 'maps' the best of any runner in this race.

Preferred Surface: Has equal ability on both Good and Dead tracks but we know nothing about him on worse as he has never started on 'inferior' ground.

Historically: Only a 4yo so same as Whobe in that regard. He does have a good barrier though and will almost certainly race handy. Both are positives with this race in mind.

Verdict;

2-3 between him and Whobe in career runs to date and it possibly should be the other war round so why the disparity in price? There has been little between the 2 on any of those occasions. From a punting perspective he looks by far the better value of the 2 and only has to be 'on his game' here to be the one to beat in the run. Whether he is quite 'seasoned' enough to take out the event is the only real question mark. Best to stay out if track deteriorated to Slow/Heavy one would suspect, but that is probably unlikely.